Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.117778 0.132920 0.149289 0.168304 0.189793 0.213334 0.241093
2025-12-21 0.092811 0.112482 0.135317 0.163803 0.198424 0.239185 0.290893
2025-12-28 0.078011 0.100842 0.129110 0.166734 0.215591 0.277020 0.360340
2026-01-04 0.064492 0.088494 0.120042 0.164638 0.226232 0.308575 0.427485
2026-01-11 0.054822 0.079538 0.113891 0.165271 0.240467 0.346968 0.510132
2026-01-18 0.047641 0.072823 0.109705 0.167873 0.257772 0.392220 0.610050
2026-01-25 0.039537 0.063433 0.100175 0.161053 0.260045 0.415812 0.681745
2026-02-01 0.032709 0.054906 0.090623 0.152602 0.258310 0.432785 0.745726
2026-02-08 0.027879 0.048840 0.084046 0.147872 0.261766 0.458477 0.828261
2026-02-15 0.023797 0.043396 0.077672 0.142433 0.263039 0.480475 0.907829
2026-02-22 0.021533 0.040814 0.075865 0.144779 0.278515 0.529828 1.045506
2026-03-01 0.018709 0.036762 0.070797 0.140250 0.280346 0.554059 1.138945
2026-03-08 0.016452 0.033530 0.066935 0.137737 0.286282 0.588251 1.260794
2026-03-15 0.014517 0.030648 0.063342 0.135218 0.291866 0.622781 1.390015
2026-03-22 0.013397 0.029274 0.062589 0.138500 0.310225 0.686926 1.595497
2026-03-29 0.012035 0.027172 0.060001 0.137402 0.318843 0.731457 1.764995
2026-04-05 0.011007 0.025654 0.058455 0.138404 0.332427 0.789436 1.977268
2026-04-12 0.010205 0.024527 0.057620 0.140932 0.350060 0.859820 2.233459
2026-04-19 0.008984 0.022226 0.053728 0.135477 0.347300 0.880535 2.367121
2026-04-26 0.007836 0.019930 0.049518 0.128568 0.339733 0.888039 2.467516
2026-05-03 0.006998 0.018289 0.046678 0.124723 0.339537 0.914573 2.625329
2026-05-10 0.006230 0.016710 0.043770 0.120240 0.336897 0.934214 2.767648
2026-05-17 0.005846 0.016099 0.043286 0.122281 0.352721 1.007230 3.080698